Earthquake Prediction Model

January 31, 2005:  For last month (January 2006) based on the latest earthquake model the following predictions were posted posted on December 31, 2005 :

"During January 1-5, 15-21, and 25-26, a probability of occurrence of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher is likely in regions of Asia that include Turkey, Iran, and Afghanistan; and also in regions of Central America."

US geological survey reported the earthquakes of magnitude higher than 7.0 as listed below:

Jan 2: A magnitude 7.3 earthquake EAST OF SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS has occurred at: 60.81S 21.46W Depth 10km Mon Jan 2 06:10:49 2006 UTC

Jan 2: A magnitude 7.1 earthquake IN THE FIJI REGION has occurred at: 19.88S 178.23W Depth 579km Mon Jan 2 22:13:40 2006 UTC

Jan 27: A magnitude 7.7 earthquake IN BANDA SEA has occurred at:  5.45S 128.10E Depth 342km Fri Jan 27 16:58:48 2006 UTC

It is interesting to note that the two earthquakes larger than 7 magnitude occurred on January 2, one of the predicted dates, and third one on January 27 that missed the prediction date by a day.

As far as the prediction of location is concerned, it's been off, and clearly further research is warranted to improve the model.