Earthquake Prediction Model

Earthquake Prediction Model

November 20, 2005: As you have probably noticed in our monthly global prediction section we have only been providing the prediction for a period (or periods) during which a natural or manmade calamity is likely to occur. And we have lumped such calamities with the following qualification:

"While man-made calamities may manifest themselves in terrorism, unrest, violence, accidents, and air crashes, natural calamities include extreme weather conditions such as severe winters, intensive droughts, hurricanes or typhoons, thunderstorms, earthquakes and fires."

While it is extremely difficult to predict the type of calamity and the corresponding location of its occurrence, based on our recent research model for earthquakes, we made an attempt to predict an earthquake (s) with possible geographical location (s) in our monthly global prediction for November for the first time. Accordingly, the following excerpt describes the earthquake related prediction for November:

Thus, the periods of both natural and man-made calamities are: Nov 5-10 and Nov 14-24. During these periods an occurrence of an earthquake in region of Asia that include Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, or India is likely. A possibility of a strong hurricane hitting the gulf coast of the United States during the same period is also likely.

To this date three earthquakes have occurred in November. They are:

Nov 14: A major earthquake occurred at 21:38:51 (UTC) on Monday, November 14, 2005. The magnitude 7.0 event has been located OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist) --- U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center. (more).

Nov 17: A strong earthquake occurred at 19:26:56 (UTC) on Thursday, November 17, 2005. The magnitude 6.9 event has been located in POTOSI, BOLIVIA. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist) -- --- U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center. (more).

Nov 19: Strong quake hits Indonesia, no damage reported. A strong earthquake occurred at 14:10:15 (UTC) on Saturday, November 19, 2005. The magnitude 6.5 event has been located in SIMEULUE, INDONESIA. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist) -- --- U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center. (more).

While our earthquake model clearly needs refinements for predicting locations with higher degree of confidence, the model's ability to successfully predict earthquake(s) is reflected above.