Earthquake
Prediction Model
Posted:
January 9, 2008
Presented at the NCGR (National
Council for Geocosmic Research) Research Symposium
National
Conference: Baltimore, Maryland, March 2007
Abstract
The
objective of this research was to analyze and investigate correlations between
astronomical data and earthquakes, with the intended goal of predicting future
earthquakes with a greater advanced warning and higher degree of accuracy than
current technology. Specifically, it focuses on severe earthquakes that occurred
during the last century, with special emphasis on earthquakes of magnitude 7 or
higher. This research work shows a
strong correlation between certain interplanetary configurations (encompassing
the relative geocentric positions and angles of all planets) and the occurrence
of strong earthquakes. However,
further research is necessary to build a useful, predictive model that can
assess the probability of a given earthquake occurring during a certain time
period at a given geographical location on earth.
Predicting earthquakes well in advance of the state of the art will
promote, protect, and enhance the world economy, potentially saving millions of
lives.
Introduction
There is absolutely no
precedent in predicting an earthquake solely based on planetary configuration.
An occurrence of an earthquake is a random event and it can sometimes occur more
frequently than other times. This
research began with the idea that planetary positions along the ecliptic, and
therefore, their apparent positions as viewed from earth, may potentially
correlate with the occurrence of earthquakes. Based on planetary characteristics
and a large amount of earthquake data, several hypotheses were tested to see if
these correlations actually exist. The results of this exercise indicate that certain planetary
configurations seem to correlate reasonably well with earthquakes. Although the
present state of research is primitive, the intent of this paper is to highlight
the initial findings on prediction of earthquakes.
Although this paper focuses on
earthquake prediction model, since 1993, I have been studying the influence of
planetary configurations on natural calamities in general. Starting in 2000,
these predictions have been made available to the public on a monthly basis at
my website: www.astroinsight.com.
While further research is warranted to include the place and type of
natural disaster in the predictions, the time periods for the occurrences of
natural disasters have been predicted in my monthly columns.
Beginning in 2006, my research
on the natural calamities was more focused on the occurrence of earthquakes.
One reason for this was the availability of accurate data on earthquakes
from National Earthquake Information Center, United States Geological Survey.
As a starting point, I chose
the top 100 earthquakes by magnitude and their occurrences with corresponding
planetary positions using standard statistical techniques. The slow moving outer
planets from Mars to Pluto, and the North and South lunar nodes seemed to
significantly influence the earthquake occurrences. By refining the method, I
obtained better correlations with unique planetary configurations.
Research Basis  Methodology
As
pointed out earlier the bases for this research are the unique planetary
positions (longitude measured along the ecliptic) surrounding the earth.
Astronomical data provides planetary positions as a function of time.
I have observed that the geocentric angles of certain magnitudes between
some pairs of planets with respect to the earth appear to correlate well with earthquakes.
Correlations between earthquakes of the past and the corresponding planetary angles during those
respective periods occur in a statistically significant way.
These correlations reveal that when increasing number of geocentric
angles when they occur as conjunctions (zero degrees) and in multiples of
fifteen degrees all the way to oppositions (180 degrees), the probability of an
earthquake becomes greater. In addition, the larger the number of some of these
angles, specifically: 180, 165, 150, 135, 105, 90, 75, 45, 30, 15, and zero
degrees, the higher the probability of earthquake severity.
Thus, while oppositions, quincunxes, squares, and sometimes conjunctions
between certain planets seem to correlate well with the occurrence of
earthquakes, trines, sextiles and conjunctions between specific planets seem to
correlate with periods during which earthquakes are least likely to occur.
The Model
The model is tested using a simple linear regression technique.
Because every variable influences the earthquake in a specific way, all
variables are weighed differently. Thus, in theory there are 55 different pairs
of planets (6 outer, 2 inner, Sun, Moon and the North lunar node) and 13
distinct angles (from 0 degrees to 180 in multiples of 15), making a total of
687 maximum possible unique variables that can influence the earthquake
occurrence. (Note that the maximum angles between Venus and Mercury, Venus and
Sun, and Mercury and Sun are 73.5, 47 and 27 degrees respectively). However,
since the Moon’s average daily variation is about 12 to 13 degrees it can form
angles with all other planets during a twentyfour hour period of every day.
Therefore, the influence of the Moon is assumed to be equal for everyday and is
not included in the model. Since
the daily planetary variations on average (excluding the Moon) are with in the
orb of one degree or less, the assumption of Moon’s exclusion then allows for
Greenwich noontime data to be employed for the Greenwich date when the
earthquakes occurred
Earthquake data of magnitude 7 and higher for the
last hundred years were downloaded from the USGS website: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/.
I then computed all corresponding planetary positions and angles. Using
an orb of one degree the planetary data pertaining to angles from zero, 15, and
multiples of fifteen up to 180 degrees were extracted for all 45 planetary angle
pairs. Thus, there are 557unique variables.
A linear model is assumed.
Thus,
Earthquake
Magnitude = S Cn
* (angle pair)n + constant
for n =1 to 557
where
Cn is the coefficient of the n^{th} pair.
All
the coefficients were estimated by generalized least squares.
A number of coefficients were so small in magnitude that their influence
on the model were deemed negligible. The
corresponding variables were omitted one at a time and the regression was
repeated to confirm that their influence on the model indeed was negligible.
After
running several cases, four to five models with between 120 to 420 variables of
interest were obtained. Using Greenwich noontime daily planetary positions, each
model was then used to predict the earthquakes in the year 2006 and 2007.
The predicted results and the actual dates on which earthquakes occurred
are summarized in the following Table1. Predictions for every month were posted
at my website: www.astroinsight.com
on the last day of the preceding month.
Table1
Earthquake
Predictions since January 2006 of magnitude 7 or higher
Months

Prediction Dates

Actual Dates




January
2006

15,
1521, 2526

2(7.3,
7.1), 27(7.7)

February
2006

1, 5, 2228.

22
(7.5)

March
2006

1, 1012, 2427

None

April
2006

79

7(6.3),
20(7.7)

May
2006

24, 78, 18

3(8),
16(7.4)

June
2006

1921, 2628, 18, 1, 67, 1011, 16, 29, 12,
2324, 30.

None
(failed miserably)

July
2006

20, 22, 2631

17
(7.7)

August
2006

16, 27, 2931.

None

September
2006

12, 46, 1516, 28

1(6.8),
16(6), 28(6.7)

October
2006

1011, 13, 1516, 2230

10(6),
13(6), 15(6.3), 16(6.5), 22(6.1), 23(6.1)

November
2006

1214, 17, 2325, 28

12
(6.7), 15 (7.8, 8.3), 28 (6.1)

December
2006

23, 5, 1213, 1722, 2425

1(6.3),
22(6.1), 27(7)

January
2007

8, 1214, 22, 26, 28

8
(6.2, 6.1), 12 (7.7), 13 (8.2), 22 (6.2), 28 (6), 30 (6.7)

The first two columns in Table
–1, list months and the prediction dates for earthquakes of magnitude 7 or
higher for the corresponding months. The last column lists the dates on which
earthquakes occurred with magnitude shown in the parentheses.
As shown in Table1, since
January 2006 there were eleven earthquakes of magnitude 7 and higher. Out of
these eleven, five were accurately predicted; four missed their prediction by a
day, and one by two days.
The number days predicted for
months beginning January 2006 through January 2007 are 13, 9, 7, 3, 6, 18, 8,
10, 8, 14, 8, 9, 13 and 7 respectively. Discarding
the month of June during which the model failed miserably the average monthly
predicted dates were about 10. In
particular, the model did progressively well after September 2006.
Observing the data closely, it is
striking that at least four outer planets and the lunar North node form angles
that are oppositions, conjunctions, squares, quincunxes, semisquares or
semiquincunxes. The inner planets and the Sun also can contribute to earthquake
occurrences by forming similar angles and enhance the probability of the
earthquake severity, but the presence of at least four outer planets and the
North lunar node seem to be a necessary condition for an occurrence of
earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher.
Refining the model increased the
accuracy of predictions for earthquakes of magnitude six and higher, as
demonstrated in Table 1. Clearly,
for the model to be applied for earthquakes of magnitude 7 and higher would
require further improvement and therefore, more research work is warranted.
In addition, further research is necessary regarding the locations of
earthquakes.
References
1.
www.astroinsight.com
2
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
3
“It’s All in Timing,”
Maheshri,
J.C., Noble House, Baltimore, Maryland 1997.
Biography
In addition to natal chart
research and interpretation Dr. Maheshri has been researching mundane astrology
and provides monthly global predictions at his website: www.astroinsight.com
since year 2000. Among other things, he has successfully predicted the
presidential victory for George Bush for both terms. His current research
interests are weather and earthquake predictions.
As a professional
astrologer with over 35 years of practice, Dr. Maheshri teaches Vedic astrology,
conducts workshops and seminars. Currently, he is the president of NCGR Gulf
Coast Chapter. He could be reached at 2812388992 or 8323688702 (cell) or
email: jmaheshri@astroinsight.com.
